Never Trust A Scorpion: Key Learning from Maharashtra

Raman Swamy

From now on, all pre-poll agreements should be in writing.  No more verbal understandings.   The 50:50 fiasco in Maharashtra would not have happened if Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray had signed an affidavit on rotational chief ministers, got it certified by a Notary Public and sent copies to the Chief Election Commissioner.

Now look what’s happened.  Poor Devendra Fadnavis has been deprived of a second term, despite all his confident boasts even till a few days ago.  Poor acting BJP president JP Nadda is being blamed for bringing ‘bad luck’ to the party.   The mighty Amit Shah’s image as a strongman has been dented.  

This is only because the 50:50 agreement was not put down on paper.  Both Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray are honourable men.  Every word they uttered used to be trusted by 1.25 crores of Indians.  It is unthinkable that one of them is lying through his teeth.   There cannot be two versions of the Truth.  The Hindu philosophy of Dualism cannot be applied to mundane matters of government formation. 

Never mind.   Whatever has happened has happened.  It is time to look at the future instead of shedding tears about the past.  But before that, a few harsh words are permissible.   When BJP spokesman angrily described Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress as “scorpion, cobra and mongoose”, he was hurling epithets out of sheer frustration and pain.   To his credit he refused to clarify which of the three parties which are now trying to join hands to form the next government is the scorpion, which is the cobra and which is the mongoose.   Or why he thinks so. 

Even in their worst moment, the BJP believes in maintaining decorum.   The BJP also does not believe in unscrupulous horse trading.   If the party leadership had wanted to do so, 35 of the 44 Congress MLAs, 28 of the NCP MLAs and more than half of the Sena MLAs could have been bought over in a jiffy.  In fact, on the very first day of the post-election crisis, a ruling party MP had openly said that 45 Sena legislators were willing to revolt against Matoshree. 

Nobody should doubt the political engineering skills of the BJP bosses.  All they have to do is look at the effectiveness of the technique in Goa, Uttarakhand, Karnataka and the Seven Sisters of the North East.  

This only proves that in Maharashtra there was never any intention to resort to such tactics.   It was assumed that there is no need.   The Shiv Sena is an old ally and part of the ideological family.  The Thackerays are prone to throwing tantrums, but ultimately, they always come around.   Their demand that young Aditya should be made chief minister was non-serious and even absurd.  

Firstly, Fadnavis is very obviously a rising star with the potential to even rise to be Prime Minister some day in the distant future - as both Modiji and Amitji hinted during the election campaign.   It is very unfair of the Sena to have made him walk through fire over the past fortnight and even the central BJP leadership did not come to his rescue only to give him the chance to prove his mettle.   The fact that he has failed the agni pariksha is a tragedy but perhaps he will come out stronger instead of licking his wounds and sulking in a corner. 

Secondly, Aditya is like a new born baby in politics, with no administrative or legislative experience at all.   Who could have guessed that Uddhav Thackeray was actually playing a very devious game by only pretending to push forward his son’s name -- while all the time plotting to occupy the chief minister’s chair himself?   Nobody in the state BJP unit had even an inkling of Uddhav’s real intentions.   Even the Marathi media which prides itself with having inside sources everywhere was caught totally by surprise.   

That said, however, someone has to be blamed for not realizing what was coming -- someone at the very top, or very near the top.  So, JP Nadda is the best choice as scapegoat.   He has not only not been lucky for the BJP since put in temporary charge but has also shown he is not alert enough.  Sadly, there is no time left to find someone else before the appointment of a BJP president in December.   So that is another dilemma that needs to be addressed. 

But those who think the Centre is helpless are mistaken.   Arvind Sawant’s resignation from the Union Cabinet counts for nothing.  It does not weaken the Modi government even by a single decimal point.   Most people did not even know what portfolio he was holding (Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises).  The NDA coalition is as strong as ever.   Even Nitish Kumar, who is supposed to be a weak link in the NDA unity chain, took the right stand by brushing aside newsmen’s questions about Shiv Sena leaving the alliance: “Are, Wo Jaane Bhai, Ismein Hamko Kya Matlab Hai?”

Right reply.   What happens in Maharashtra does not concern anybody else.  It is purely a local state-level problem that PMO and Home Ministry is fully capable of handling.  

A warning shot has already been fired.  On Monday, while the government formation drama was being enacted at the Raj Bhawan and Uddhav Thackeray was anxiously waiting for Sonia Gandhi’s confirmatory letter, onion wholesalers were sweating for an entirely different reason.  Their godowns were being searched for evidence of onion hoarding.   The central agencies are still very much in the control of the central government.   Nobody should forget to remember that.   

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Frontier
Nov 12, 2019